In 2003, there were approximately 70,000,000 kids in the United States aged 18 and under. 945,000 of them were reported missing, or about 1 in 74. Most of them were quickly found, and were not abducted, but rather fell into the categories of runaways or custody disputes. 6% of them weren't so lucky.

Missing kids in 2003 : 945,000  (out of 70,000,000)
Runaways/Kicked out  : 682,900  (72%)
Custody dispute      : 203,900  (22%)
Non-family abduction :  58,200  ( 6%)

Each kid in 2003 had a 58,200 in 70 million, or about 1 in 1,203 chance of being abducted. Assuming those numbers stay constant, what is the percent chance of any random kid in the US being abducted at any point in his/her childhood? A little high-school math gives us:

1 - ( (1 - (1/1203) ) ^ 18 ) = .01486, or 1.486%, or half the odds of being born with a major birth defect. Frankly, those odds suck. Not enough to be paranoid every time I take my kid to the park, but enough to coach her in some basic safeguards, like not going out of the cul de sac, not talking to people I haven't said are OK to talk to, letting a nearby trusted adult know if she sees anything fishy, etc.

Something I've been experimenting with is getting Stacey to focus on her natural empathy and try to read people's emotions. The ear to ear grin doesn't always mean someone is happy, what's behind the grin? Should I be suspicious? The goal isn't to try to turn her into a mind-reader, that would be absurd. Rather, I'd like her to be hesitant and cautious about people who seem too friendly when normally they're indifferent. I'd also like to get her to question why an adult is talking to her. Does he really need an 8 year old's help in finding his puppy, or should he be rounding up adults, etc. I don't fancy her being able to fend off an adult hell-bent on kidnapping her, but I'd like to give her that one extra step that might make a difference.

By the same token, I don't want to ruin her childhood by having her see everyone she meets as a potential threat (that's my job, after all). And of course, the odds are on our side.